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Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-06T23:56Z (-5.53h, +7.56h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/11/04 01:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 07:00Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 12:20Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
POS Difference: 5:20
POS Midpoint: 09:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.7
Travel Time: ~8.7 * 8:05 = 70:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-11-06T23:56Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/11/04 15:47Z

Lead Time: 56.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-11-04T15:49Z

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